Nelson Mandela Bay, 03 November 2026 - As expected, South Africa has been excluded from preferential trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).
The US is currently Nelson Mandela Bay’s fourth largest export market, with products such as vehicles, automotive components, other machinery and equipment, processed precious metals, ferro-alloys, citrus, mohair, and manganese exported from the Eastern Cape’s ports to the US.
The US accounts for a 3.1% share of Nelson Mandela Bay’s exports or, put another way, R2.2 billion of the Bay’s annual export basket, which was valued at R70.7 billion for the 12-months ending May 2026. Additionally, the US is the Bay’s fourth largest source market for foreign tourists, and a fast-growing market at that; growing by 7.3% year-on-year for 2025.
In terms of the automotive industry, on top of the product-dependent Most Favoured Nation tariffs of around 3.4%, the US imposed blanket ‘Section 232’ tariffs of 25% on vehicles and vehicle components in April and May 2025 respectively, which at the time had an immediate impact on automotive trade around the globe. Locally affected businesses were impacted through reduced volumes, decreased competitiveness if they continued to export to the US, while some undertook mitigation measures to find alternative markets or downsize their operations.
As a result, the SA automotive industry saw a significant decrease in automotive exports to the US; from close to R29 billion in 2024 to R20 billion in 2025 (with vehicle exports down 31% year-on-year and component exports down 11%), and the anticipation of Agoa exclusion reinforced the importance of adaptability and market diversification for the local automotive industry to minimise business risk and impact.
Generally, yesterday’s announcement on Agoa is thus a moot point for the automotive industry, depending on how the updates to the policy are applied, which potentially could result in some tariff increases for specific components. It may also cause businesses who were waiting on a potential positive outcome on AGOA to change their global manufacturing footprint and export strategies.
Across a number of sectors, uncertainty regarding AGOA renewal has undermined business investment decisions, sourcing commitments and export planning for both South African firms exporting to the US and US firms integrated into SA supply chains.
South Africa’s exclusion from AGOA, which is expected to take effect from 1 January 2027, does not mean SA businesses are banned from doing trade with the US. SA will still have access but at higher tariffs, thus reducing its competitiveness. Businesses that continue exporting to the US will have to find other ways of improving their competitiveness, such as reducing costs and improving efficiencies.
SA’s agriculture exports to the US will face additional Most Favoured Nation tariffs on top of the existing tariffs of 12.5% ‘Section 301’ tariffs for products not specifically excluded. The U.S. remains an important market for South African agriculture, accounting for about 4% of our agricultural exports. Main exports include citrus, berries, grapes, raisins, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts.
South Africa needs to focus its efforts on diversifying its export markets and must aim to have mutually beneficial relationships in place with as many countries as possible; being an active partner in formations such as BRICS and the G20, without sacrificing other relationships. The approach should thus be agnostic to build more “international friendships” and to balance and retain our existing trading partners in Europe, the Americas, Africa and other parts of the world, while simultaneously pushing for ambitious trade agreements within BRICS and proactively exploring ways to generate long-term mutually beneficial trade opportunities.
#BayOfOpportunity
Issued by:
Denise van Huyssteen
Chief Executive Officer